Are mortgage rates going down? A little, this week. Freddie Mac's survey released today shows the 30-year fixed at 7.32%, down from 7.40%, and the 15-year at 6.68%, down from 6.71%. It's the first weekly decline after a seven-week climb that took the 30-year to its highest level since November 2023.
Is this the start of a real drop? Forecasters aren't calling it one. Fannie Mae's October forecast has the 30-year averaging 7.4% this quarter and 7.5% throughout 2027. For Scottsdale and Phoenix buyers, the smarter question is whether a payment works now, with a cushion for rates to move either way.
Data note: Weekly averages are from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), released Oct. 22, 2026. PMMS is a national average for conventional, conforming purchase loans; your rate depends on credit, down payment, loan size and points. Payment examples are arithmetic only.
Mortgage Rates This Week vs. Earlier in 2026
- This week (Oct. 22): 7.32% (30-year) · 6.68% (15-year)
- Last week (Oct. 15): 7.40% · 6.71%
- One year ago: 6.19% · 5.44%
- 2026 low: 5.98% on Feb. 26
- Early September: 6.71% on Sept. 3, before the fall run-up
What That Means in Dollars
Principal and interest on an $800,000, 30-year loan:
- At 7.40%: about $5,539 a month
- At 7.32%: about $5,495, roughly $44 less
- At 6.19% (a year ago): about $4,895, roughly $601 less than today
Arithmetic only; excludes taxes, insurance and HOA dues.
Why Rates Jumped This Fall
The 10-Year Treasury
Mortgage rates loosely track the 10-year Treasury yield. Realtor.com reported the 10-year averaged 5.28% the week of Oct. 8, its highest since 2002, amid:
- Inflation expectations
- A broad bond-market selloff
- Rising deficits that require new government debt
Inflation and the Fed
- September CPI came in slightly hotter than expected, with core inflation ticking up (Realtor.com)
- The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate for the first time in more than three years (CNBC)
- Next Fed meetings: Oct. 27-28 and Dec. 8-9; there's no November meeting
Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in 2027?
Not according to Fannie Mae's latest view:
- Q4 2026: 7.4% average 30-year rate
- Every quarter of 2027: 7.5%
- Previous forecast: 6.8% for Q4 and 6.7% for 2027, per CNBC
Forecasts are built on a snapshot (Fannie Mae's rate assumptions date to Sept. 30) and have been revised sharply in both directions. Treat them as context, not a plan.
Should You Lock or Wait?
- Budget with a buffer: Realtor.com found that planning for 50 basis points of movement in the three months before buying captured the future rate 80% of the time. On an $800,000 loan, 0.50% is about $275 a month
- Ask about float-downs: some lenders offer a one-time reprice if rates fall after you lock
- Use seller money: in a market where sellers are cutting prices, a rate buydown may beat a price cut. See rate buydown vs. price reduction
- Check your loan size: many Scottsdale purchases cross the 2026 conforming limit, which changes pricing. See Arizona's 2026 jumbo loan limit
“I've watched buyers wait all fall for 'the dip,' and this week's eight basis points won't change anyone's life. What does change it is negotiating power, and right now buyers have more of it in Scottsdale than they've had in a while. If the house is right and the payment works with a cushion, I'd rather you negotiate a buydown today than gamble on next quarter's rate.”
— Elizabeth Vijan, Tackett Team, eXp Realty
FAQ: Mortgage Rates in October 2026
Are mortgage rates going down this week?
Slightly: 7.32% from 7.40% on the 30-year (Freddie Mac, Oct. 22, 2026).
Will mortgage rates go down in 2027?
Fannie Mae projects 7.5% through 2027. Forecasts change often.
Why did mortgage rates go up so much in fall 2026?
A 10-year Treasury at its highest since 2002, sticky inflation and deficit-driven bond supply.
Should I lock my mortgage rate now or wait?
If the payment works with a 0.50% cushion, waiting adds risk. Ask about float-downs.
Get a Rate-Proof Buying Plan
I'll connect you with trusted local lenders, compare buydown and price-cut scenarios on real Scottsdale and Phoenix listings, and help you set a budget that holds up if rates move.
Elizabeth Vijan | Tackett Team, eXp Realty
Scottsdale & Phoenix Real Estate
Build My Rate-Proof Plan · Call or text 602-885-7752
Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Oct. 22, 2026) · Freddie Mac PMMS historical weekly data (XLSX) · Realtor.com: rates jump for seventh straight week (Oct. 8, 2026) · Realtor.com: rates hold steady (Oct. 15, 2026) · Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, October 2026 (PDF) · CNBC: Fannie Mae raises mortgage rate forecast (Oct. 14, 2026) · Federal Reserve FOMC meeting calendar
Disclaimer: General information, not financial or lending advice. Rates change daily and vary by borrower and lender; consult a licensed loan officer for a quote. Forecasts are not guarantees. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.
Tackett Team, eXp Realty · Get in touch