Is the Phoenix housing market cooling in fall 2026? Activity is cooling, but prices are holding up better than the headlines suggest. In Maricopa County, pending sales fell 39.3% year over year in September 2026, and closed sales fell 5.3%. Yet the median sales price dipped only 2% to $500,000, and sellers still received 98.1% of their list price, according to the Phoenix REALTORS® Local Market Update.
Scottsdale tells a different story on price. The city's median rose 4.3% to $1,200,000, and closings rose 2.2%. What both markets share is hesitation: pending sales in Scottsdale fell 40.2%. Affordability and rate uncertainty are delaying the usual fall pickup. They are not erasing demand.
Data note: Figures are from the Phoenix REALTORS® Local Market Update for September 2026, as summarized by Phoenix Agent Magazine on October 8, 2026. Year-over-year comparisons are against September 2025. Market data can be revised after publication.
Maricopa County: September 2026 at a Glance
- Closed sales: 3,702, down 5.3% year over year
- Year-to-date closed sales: 37,600, vs. 36,457 at this point in 2025
- Pending sales: 2,241, down 39.3% from 3,694
- New listings: 5,502, down 1.2%
- Median sales price: $500,000, down 2%
- Average sales price: $686,802, up 1.2%
- Percent of list price received: 98.1%
- Homes for sale: 15,422, up 6.4%
- Months of inventory: 3.9, vs. 3.7 a year ago
- Affordability index: 72, down from 74
Scottsdale: September 2026 at a Glance
- New listings: 543, up 2.8%
- Closings: 327, up 2.2%
- Year-to-date sales: up 10.6%
- Pending sales: 192, down 40.2%
- Median sales price: $1,200,000, up 4.3%
- Average sales price: $1,646,506, up 7.1%
- Months of inventory: 3.7, down 9.8% year over year
Reading Between the Lines
Pending Sales Are the Number to Watch
Closed sales reflect contracts written weeks earlier. Pending sales show what buyers are doing now. A drop of roughly 40% in both the county and Scottsdale tells me many buyers are pausing, which points to slower closings in the coming months.
Affordability Is the Brake, Not Lack of Interest
The affordability index fell from 74 to 72, meaning the median household income covers 72% of what's needed to buy a median-priced home. Phoenix REALTORS® President Sammy Glassman put it plainly:
- "September often marks the start of increased fall activity, but this year people are navigating more affordability pressure and rate uncertainty."
- "Affordability today is often more about the monthly payment than the purchase price alone."
Scottsdale's Upper End Is Holding
A median of $1,200,000 and an average of $1,646,506, both up year over year, alongside a 10.6% year-to-date sales increase, suggest Scottsdale's buyers are less rate-sensitive than the broader market. At the same time, a lower inventory figure (3.7 months, down 9.8%) means Scottsdale sellers are not facing the same growing competition the county is.
What It Means If You're Buying
- You may face less competition. With pending sales down sharply, well-priced homes may draw fewer competing offers than in a typical fall.
- Countywide, you have more choice. 15,422 homes for sale, up 6.4%, is real selection.
- Focus on the payment, not just the price. As Glassman noted, seller concessions can help buyers buy down their rate or reduce upfront costs. Ask your lender to model the options with current rates.
- Don't expect Scottsdale bargains across the board. Prices there are still rising.
What It Means If You're Selling
- Price for today's buyer. Countywide, the 98.1% list-to-sale figure shows well-priced homes still close near asking.
- Expect more questions about payment. Being open to a concession can be more effective than a price cut, especially when buyers compare resale homes with new construction.
- Watch your competition. In the county, inventory is growing. In Scottsdale, it's tighter. Your strategy should reflect your submarket.
- Prepare thoroughly. Hesitant buyers reward homes that feel move-in ready.
“The conversations I'm having with buyers this fall are different. They aren't asking whether they can afford the house. They're asking whether they can afford the payment. That's a solvable problem. The sellers who win right now are the ones who understand that and price, prepare and negotiate with it in mind.”
— Elizabeth Vijan, Tackett Team, eXp Realty
FAQ: The Fall 2026 Phoenix and Scottsdale Market
Is the Phoenix housing market cooling in fall 2026?
Activity is cooling. Maricopa County pending sales fell 39.3% in September 2026, but the median price dipped just 2% to $500,000, and sellers received 98.1% of list (Phoenix REALTORS®).
Is Scottsdale cooling as fast as the rest of the Valley?
Not on price. Scottsdale's median rose 4.3% to $1,200,000, though pending sales fell 40.2%.
Is fall 2026 a good time to buy?
For prepared buyers, it can be. More inventory countywide and fewer competing contracts can mean more room to negotiate.
Should I wait until spring to sell?
Not necessarily. Pricing and preparation matter more than the calendar.
Get a Read on Your Own Neighborhood
Countywide numbers set the tone, but your neighborhood sets the price. If you're selling, I'll prepare a custom pricing strategy that shows your home against today's active competition and recent sales. If you're buying, I'll build a curated list of homes that fit your budget and connect you with a lender to model your monthly payment with real numbers.
Elizabeth Vijan | Tackett Team, eXp Realty Scottsdale & Phoenix Real Estate
Request My Pricing Strategy or Custom Home List Call or Text 602-885-7752
Source and disclaimer: Phoenix REALTORS® Local Market Update for September 2026, as summarized by Phoenix Agent Magazine, "Phoenix REALTORS®: Affordability concerns delay start of fall market pickup," October 8, 2026. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and may be revised.
Tackett Team, eXp Realty · Get in touch